Friday, September 10, 2010

Real Estate Outlook: Consumer Confidence

by Kenneth R. Harney
After a few weeks in August where the economic and housing outlooks have been a little sobering - even grim - the numbers at the beginning of September are looking increasingly positive.

Take consumer confidence. We all know how important that is for economic activity and future housing sales. Well, the latest survey from the University of Michigan came in with a one point jump in overall confidence, after months of declines.

That may sound modest, and it is, but after so many bad headlines about the economy, it's a step in the right direction.

And indeed, the latest Commerce Department study finds that consumer spending is on the upswing, and just registered the biggest pickup in four months.

Meanwhile, there was surprisingly strong news from the industrial manufacturing front, which is a key factor for future employment growth: The Institute for Supply Management reported a one point gain in its manufacturing index for the latest month - which was enough of a shock to doom-and-gloom analysts on Wall Street that the stock market soared on the news.

On the housing front there were even more encouraging numbers:
  1. Pending home sales , which had been sliding since the phase-out of the tax credits last spring, rose by 5.2 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors.
  2. Also, the Standard and Poor's /Case-Shiller index reported that home prices in the top 20 metropolitan areas gained 4.2 percent year over year. Prices were up in 15 of the 20, including some big gains in California and elsewhere. 
Read more here.

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